The Battle for Hormuz Is Not the War
More oil is flowing through the strait, but that doesn’t mean the U.S. has won.
The battle for Hormuz is not the war many expected, despite recent increases in crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump is confident in the U.S. strategy, rejecting a peace plan from Iran and claiming a "tremendous" U.S. victory. However, the administration's understanding of Iran remains flawed, with increases in oil exports not indicating the end of the conflict on American terms.
Iran's economy is in crisis, with the rial trading at record rates and severe food inflation. Despite Iran's reduced ability to control the strait, oil flows remain significantly below pre-war levels. The U.S. military's clearance of mines and sanctions imposed by the Treasury Department have enabled some oil shipments, but the situation remains dangerous and unsustainable.
Iran's leaders are far more militarized and hard-line than initially anticipated, and they are likely to escalate further if the economic pressure continues.
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