Studie: Deutschland wird bis 2045 schrumpfen

According to a recent study, Germany's population is expected to shrink to approximately 81.8 million people by 2045. The study, titled "Demographic Situation of the Nation," was presented by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development. Nearly two-thirds of the country's 400 counties and independent cities can expect population decline.

Additionally, nearly 200 regions that experienced growth in recent years are projected to shrink as well. The German Statistical Office estimates that in 2026, around 83.3 million people will reside in Germany.

The research was conducted by the Berlin Institute in collaboration with the Wüstenrot Foundation, marking the fifth time they have examined the country's 400 counties and independent cities. The federal evaluation system takes into account 26 indicators from demography, economy, education, and social conditions. The key question is not whether Germany will grow or shrink, but where, according to Catherina Hinz, the institute's director.

While Germany's overall population decline is moderate, Manuel Slupina of the Wüstenrot Foundation noted that there are significant regional differences. Many major cities are expected to continue growing, while some rural regions will experience substantial population loss.

The study's findings reveal increasingly diverse developments within the regions studied. In Eastern Germany, 12 out of 20 counties and independent cities have the weakest overall assessments – a number that grew from 5 in 2019. The positive trend observed in many eastern regions from 2014 to 2024 is not consistent in all areas.

The institute's data shows that successful and weaker regions in terms of demography, economy, education, and social conditions are now largely distinct. In the west, there are also significant disparities. For instance, the Saarland is projected to continue losing population, while cities like Frankfurt am Main or Düsseldorf are expected to grow.

Among the federal states, Bavaria is increasingly at the forefront of decline, with 18 out of 20 best-placed counties and independent cities located in the state.