Place Your Bets on the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse
It was all foretold in the prediction markets, where revelations create returns. Easy profits for aspiring prophets.
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse appear to be making a comeback in the wake of renewed biblical literalism. War, conquest, famine, and death are all on the horizon, as if the horses themselves have galloped onto the financial stage. Trading volumes for different scenarios of Armageddon have been tallied, revealing a clear favorite.
The black horse, carrying a pair of balances, is the frontrunner, with a focus on famine. However, no live market exists for famine, though some prediction markets have surfaced in recent times. The closest proxies today are Polymarket contracts on a ceasefire in Sudan's civil war and foreign intervention in Gaza, with a combined total of about $1.2 million.
The pale horse, associated with pestilence, fares better, thanks to a recent scare over a suspected pneumonic plague death at a Siberian anti-plague institute. Plague pandemic this year has drawn 4 percent, but traders give a 4 percent chance of a pandemic in 2026. The real money lies in the spread of measles, with a market on U.S. case numbers this year drawing $8.1 million, and another $1.2 million on the World Health Organization declaring any new pandemic in 2026.
Artificial intelligence is also a concern, with about $1.65 million in trading volume regarding the possibility of superintelligence causing extinction by 2030. The white horse starts the serious money with a ceasefire in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, drawing over $112 million. Three markets on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan have drawn $47.5 million, and the Donroe Doctrine, as Trump tries to redraw the Western Hemisphere's map, has drawn $35.7 million.
Cuba markets, with President Trump potentially moving against the communist island, add more than $10 million. The red horse, War, takes the lead with roughly $245 million, accounting for about 200 times Famine's tally. Most of the bets are on Iran, with a focus on Kharg Island slipping from Tehran's control, a U.S. ground invasion of Iran, the end of the U.S. naval blockade, and the Israel-Iran ceasefire.
The final chapter in this biblical tale sees Polymarket's market on Jesus Christ's return before 2027 drawing $66.3 million, more than any single Conquest market and six times Famine and Death combined. Traders price the Second Coming at 1 percent.
Written by urgent.news from Newsweek's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
