Attijariwafa’s acquisition of Societe Generale likely to be ratings neutral; Ghana’s banking environment healthy – Fitch

Fitch Ratings has stated that Attijariwafa Bank's (AWB) acquisition of a 55.2% stake in Société Générale's Ghanaian subsidiary is likely to be ratings neutral. This deal, valued at less than US$1 billion, represents only 1.0% of AWB's total assets and 11% of its equity as of the end of 2025. The smaller size of Société Générale Ghana compared to AWB suggests that the acquisition will not substantially increase AWB's exposure to the rest of Africa or pressure its capital ratios.

Moreover, the acquisition is expected to only moderately contribute to AWB's assets and net income, accounting for roughly 3% of AWB's net income in 2025, as domestic growth in Morocco is anticipated to be similar to the growth of AWB's other African operations. Fitch also noted that the acquisition will not significantly increase AWB's exposure to the rest of Africa, although it may slightly diversify AWB's earnings base due to Ghana's strong profitability metrics.

The pre-tax return on equity and return on assets in Ghana's banking sector were 22% and 4.3%, respectively, in the first eight months of 2026. Fitch forecasts that the transaction will not have a material impact on AWB's regulatory capital ratios due to Société Générale's modest size and AWB's robust earnings generation. AWB's internal capital generation is bolstered by its healthy return on equity (17.5% in the half-year of 2026), with the bank projecting its common equity Tier 1 ratio to remain at 10%-11% in the near term.

Additionally, AWB retains capital flexibility and could enhance its capital position, if necessary, through dividend adjustments or additional core capital from shareholders. Fitch observed that Ghana's banking environment has been improving since the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme in 2023, with the transaction occurring amid stabilizing macroeconomic conditions following the 2024 sovereign debt restructuring.