Truckload Spot Rates Keep Rising, But Demand Isn’t… Why?

Truckload spot rates continue to climb, despite a decline in demand. Accepted tender volumes are falling, and rejection rates have decreased, yet rates for both spot and contract loads are still increasing. Julie Van de Kamp explains the situation: softer tender volumes, higher fuel costs, limited capacity, and challenges for new carriers are all contributing factors.

The FreightWaves DTS diesel truck stop price has reached $6.39, up nearly 9.9% in the past month, while spot rates on the FreightWaves NTI index have increased by about 4.1%. The driver of this rate surge, however, is not an uptick in freight demand. Instead, it is the result of rising diesel costs and capacity constraints. Tender volumes have dropped nearly 3% over the past week and are down about 9% since mid-September, indicating that demand is not the primary driver.

Rejection rates are also a sign of a firm, but not frenzied, market. Outright rejections peaked at 14.67% in mid-September and have since eased to around 13.79%. Additionally, new carrier operating authority filings are not a reliable indicator of incoming capacity, as applicants may be securing licenses now to age them for future use.

Structural barriers are limiting how quickly capacity can respond to rate signals, with fewer CDL schools, driver recruitment and retention difficulties, and increased regulatory burdens contributing to higher costs and complexity in adding trucks. Large carriers are prioritizing yield and utilization over fleet growth, while smaller entrants face a more challenging path to securing freight.

Contract rates have also risen, with the van contract rate per mile initial reporting index (VCRPM1) reaching 270 on September 17, its highest level since 2022. Van de Kamp expects spot rates to remain firm and potentially continue rising in the coming months, driven by factors such as shipper willingness to pay more for better driver quality, safety performance, and fraud risk mitigation.