Is the Freight Market Finally Turning?

Estes Express Lines reported a 15% year-over-year increase in tonnage last week, marking its second consecutive record, according to CEO Webb Estes. This growth is attributed to manufacturing, particularly truck and automotive sectors, as well as groceries and retail. The carrier's next-day, regional business saw the fastest growth, with a 13% increase year-over-year in Q3, outpacing the overall 2.5% network growth.

Driver and dock worker turnover rates are also at record lows, with 7.5% and 11.5% respectively for employees with at least one year of tenure. These low turnover rates contribute to customer relationship building, giving the carrier a competitive advantage. Estes Express plans to announce pay raises and new benefits for its workforce within the next month.

Estes characterized demand as still in the early stages of the market cycle, with supply normalization driving most of the improvement. He highlighted rising credit card debt and high diesel prices as potential risks to consumer spending. However, he remains optimistic about a potential reshoring of U.S. manufacturing, which could generate at least three times the freight compared to an equivalent import flow. Estes also announced a technology upgrade that will allow shippers to track freight on a live map.