Markets bet on RBI rate hike as inflation pressure builds

Mumbai, October 5 - The Indian central bank appears poised to hike interest rates, with nearly 60% of economists polled suggesting a 25-basis-point increase at their upcoming meeting. This would mark the RBI's first rate hike in nearly four years, lifting the benchmark repo rate from 5.25% to potentially 6.25%. Market pricing indicates a full expectation of this increase, with swap markets fully pricing in the borrowing cost hike.

Rahul Bajoria, an India and ASEAN economist at BofA Global Research, believes the RBI has little reason to delay, citing high growth visibility, broadening inflation, and reduced need to wait for global clarity. He expects the central bank to initiate a 100-basis-point tightening cycle this October, moving beyond merely reversing last December's incremental rate cut.

Inflation remains a concern, with consumer prices surging to 4.82% in August, above the RBI's 4% target for three consecutive months. Inflation pressures have expanded beyond food and fuel, with nearly half of the CPI basket experiencing price increases at or above the target. Despite this, the economy grew 7.8% in the April-June quarter.

Major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, have raised rates since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began seven months ago. Traders and analysts now anticipate the RBI to follow suit, warning of potential currency and bond market pushback if rates are not raised.

A rate hike could make Indian bonds more attractive to foreign investors amid global capital competition and struggling domestic stocks. However, higher rates may also intensify inflation-adjusted interest rates in India. Economists predict a shallow hike cycle of 25-50 basis points, while some anticipate 75-100 bps of rate increases over the next 12 months.