Flávio Bolsonaro edges Lula in the first round; both head to an October 25 runoff

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro secured approximately 47% of valid votes in Brazil's first round of presidential elections, narrowly ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who garnered around 45%. As neither candidate received a majority of the vote, they will face off in a runoff on October 25. This outcome contradicts the initial polls, with Datafolha's survey indicating Lula had 45% and Bolsonaro 42%, while Quaest placed the president five points ahead.

The Liberal Party candidate led from the beginning, declaring that "Brazil wants change" and thanking the nearly 56 million voters who participated. He also declared the end of the PT era, though he did not mention his father, who is currently imprisoned for attempting a coup. Lula, speaking from São Paulo, admitted he was convinced of his victory but emphasized that the second round would be the real test.

The 80-year-old president criticized the Bolsonaro family's biographies and the alleged links with militias and the Banco Master case involving Flávio Bolsonaro. Other candidates received about 8% of the vote, and Lula's base of support, primarily lower-income groups, will play a crucial role in the runoff. Voting was peaceful, aside from a few power outages at polling stations due to storms.

A Bolsonaro victory would mark a series of right-wing triumphs in Latin America, following similar victories in Chile, Colombia, and Peru. The senator aims to integrate Brazil into the Americas Shield, a Washington-backed security alliance in which Brazil currently does not participate.