Citi: un cambio de Gobierno en España puede resucitar la opa sobre Sabadell

Citi analysts have reopened the map of banking consolidation in light of the upcoming vote call, especially regarding Santander, according to a note sent to investors. The analysts believe a change in government in Spain, particularly if Alberto N�ez-Feij�o wins the elections on November 29, could revive the debate on mergers in the banking sector, following the failed public offer (opa) of BBVA to acquire Sabadell last year.

The current coalition government opposed the Sabadell acquisition by BBVA. Citi views a hypothetical government led by the PP, independent of independent Catalan parties, as potentially more favorable to banking consolidation. Sabadell's current price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is 9 times its 2028 earnings, below 10-12 times for its domestic competitors.

Investors may focus more on whether a change in government could alter the likelihood of Sabadell remaining independent, rather than its participation in sector consolidation. BBVA is currently evaluating the possibility of attempting the operation again. Peio Belausteguigoitia, the general director of BBVA in Spain, expressed support for greater financial sector consolidation in Europe during a recent financial forum, without specifying any concrete operations.

Sabadell is preparing a new strategic plan to maintain its independent strategy. Although the government imposed conditions on the opa but did not veto it, the transaction failed as only 25% of Sabadell's capital accepted the offer, leaving BBVA with the dilemma of improving the price even in a more favorable political climate. An option to avoid another opa by Sabadell, which now has Marc Armengol as CEO, would be to act as a consolidator, seeking a deal with a smaller firm like Unicaja.

Currently, Sabadell's share price is up 1.6%, while BBVA's is up 0.9%. The analysts at Citi consider the elections themselves unlikely to have a significant impact on bank stocks, but mention three other areas of debate as potential factors: the possibility of removing the banking tax, the future of the 18% government stake in CaixaBank, and Spain's growth prospects in the coming years, depending on measures in housing, immigration, and the economy.