Bolsonaro leads Lula as nail-biter Brazil vote goes to a run-off

Brazil's senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, edged out incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Sunday's election, setting the stage for a run-off vote in three weeks. The unexpected result, which contradicted polls predicting Lula's lead, saw Flavio Bolsonaro garner 47% of the vote compared to Lula's 45%. If Flavio Bolsonaro wins in the October 25 election, Brazil will be the latest Latin American country to veer right, a trend championed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The election also saw a series of resounding victories for the right in parliament, marking a significant setback for Lula, who is seeking a fourth term to solidify his legacy. The 81-year-old leftist described the vote as a battle between democracy and "barbarism," cautioning voters that Brazil's sovereignty is at risk due to U.S. pressure.

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, was relatively unknown before his father endorsed him as his political heir. Although he never expressed a desire to follow in his father's footsteps, his father's influential name resonated with Brazil's conservative voters and propelled him ahead of Lula in the polls. The campaign was marred by scandals and mudslinging, leaving Brazilian voters disillusioned and undecided.

Oscarina de Oliveira, a 62-year-old caregiver, had planned to vote for Lula but switched to Bolsonaro just to see what would happen. Tech worker Joao Batista, 36, said he was fed up with the high cost of basic goods and wanted a change. The Vorcaro probe, which investigated Flavio Bolsonaro's father for corruption over financing a biopic about him, also led to a rare public clash on the Supreme Court, damaging Lula's campaign and eroding trust in institutions.

The election results were a triumphant comeback for the Bolsonaro family after Jair Bolsonaro lost a re-election bid in 2022, resulting in violent riots and his conviction for attempting a coup. Other Bolsonaro family members, including Michelle Bolsonaro and Carlos Bolsonaro, secured seats in the Senate. Jair Bolsonaro's youngest son, Jair Renan, 28, was elected as a federal lawmaker. Despite U.S. President Trump's close monitoring of the election, he did not endorse Flavio Bolsonaro.

Lula, who made a dramatic political comeback to office in 2022 after being released from a corruption conviction, made efforts to address poverty but faced criticism over the high cost of living. He also curbed deforestation in the Amazon while supporting oil exploration. Climate change, however, was largely absent from the campaign, despite Brazil facing increasing extreme weather events.