Trump wants control of the entire western hemisphere. Brazil might become his biggest prize | Steve Bloomfield

Brazilians are set to vote Sunday in a closely watched election between incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The outcome of the race could determine whether Brazil follows a rightward shift in Latin America, as championed by US President Donald Trump. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term, warning voters that Brazil's sovereignty is at risk due to pressure from Trump. He faces a tough challenge from the 45-year-old Flavio, a senator and right-wing candidate.

Opinion polls indicate neither candidate is likely to secure more than 50% of the vote in the first round, which is scheduled for Sunday, leaving the race neck-and-neck for an Oct 25 runoff. Lula enjoys support in Brazil's poor northeast and among low-income voters, Catholics, and women. In contrast, Flavio leads in the southern region, among wealthier voters, and among evangelicals.

The deeply polarized nation witnessed a fierce election campaign marked by numerous scandals and mud-slinging rather than policy and promises. Lula has criticized Flavio, calling him "a nobody who is not even fit to be a building manager." Flavio, on the other hand, has described Lula as "incompetent" and declared, "Brazil can't stand you anymore."

Voter turnout and last-minute decisions are expected to play crucial roles in the election. Joelio Camargo, a motorcycle courier in Brasilia, expressed his indecision, stating that he has previously voted for Lula but is now seeking a change. Lula, known for his social welfare programs that lifted millions out of poverty, made a dramatic comeback to office in 2022 after a corruption scandal saw him jailed for over 18 months. He narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 by only 1.8 percentage points.

Lula's third term has seen a drop in inflation and unemployment, but voters are frustrated with the high cost of living and rising crime rates. He has also curbed deforestation in the Amazon, but the environment has been a relatively minor campaign issue. Indigenous chief Bepdjo Mekragnotire, from the Bau village in the Amazon, expressed his support for Lula, warning that a Flavio victory could lead to more illegal mining and logging.

Trump has closely monitored the election, urging the US not to meddle in Brazilian affairs. Flavio Bolsonaro's rallies have featured US flags and images of Trump, while Lula faced pressure not to "meddle" in the elections. Flavio's campaign has vowed a hardline approach to crime and fiscal austerity amid rising public debt.