Major oil exporters agree to keep production steady in November

OPEC+ oil exporters have decided to maintain production levels steady in November, according to a meeting held on Sunday. This news aligns with expectations that no further adjustments to output policy are anticipated until next year. The seven core members of the group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia, made this decision during a brief online meeting on Sunday. These members consist of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman.

Gulf OPEC+ producers have been producing oil at significantly lower rates than their output targets due to ongoing export disruptions caused by the US-Zionist entity war on Iran. Recent months have seen exports fluctuating between 60% and 80% of normal levels. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that while OPEC+ kept their production ceilings unchanged, their output levels remain far below quota. "Consequently, the oil market remains tight," Staunovo stated.

The Iran war has further complicated matters by delaying the group's crucial output capacity review, which is essential for determining members' 2027 output quotas. The uncertainty surrounding future production potential due to the conflict has prevented most of the previously announced output increases from being implemented. As of August, OPEC+ members pumped 25 million barrels per day, a 630,000 barrel per day increase from the previous month, but still 5 million barrels per day below prewar levels in February, according to OPEC data.

The seven core OPEC+ members will reconvene on November 1 to discuss further actions. Currently, OPEC+ has about 2 million barrels per day of output cuts in place covering most members. The group will need the results of the capacity review to decide on any distribution of increases and changes to output, which are unlikely to occur before 2027. A separate OPEC+ ministerial group, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), also met on Sunday to review the market situation.