Fitch Solutions maintains its policy rate forecast of 14% by December 2026

Fitch Solutions has kept its forecast for the Bank of Ghana's policy interest rate at 14.00% by the end of 2026, anticipating a 200 basis point increase to 16.00% in 2027. The UK-based firm reached this conclusion after the Bank of Ghana maintained the same rate at its latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

Fitch Solutions attributes the steady rate to the country's persistently low single-digit inflation, which is expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at the last MPC meeting of 2026 in November. The company notes that consumer price growth has been extremely low this year, averaging just 4.0% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 2010-2025 average of 15.7% and the Bank of Ghana's target range of 6.0-10.0%.

Fitch Solutions attributes the price stability to the lingering effects of previous monetary tightening, favorable base effects, and a stronger cedi compared to a year ago. However, inflation has been on the rise, reaching 5.0% in August 2026 from 3.2% in March. The firm predicts inflation will continue to climb, reaching 6.8% by the year's end, driven by high energy costs due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict and the cedi weakening on a year-over-year basis.

Despite the upward trend in inflation, the firm sees little incentive for rate cuts, making a hold at 14.00% in November 2026 the most probable outcome.