Fitch Solutions maintains its policy rate forecast of 14% by December 2026

Fitch Solutions has retained its policy rate forecast at 14.00% by the end of the year, anticipating a 200 basis points (bps) hike to 16.00% by the Bank of Ghana in 2027. This comes after the Bank of Ghana maintained the policy rate at 14% during its latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. According to Fitch Solutions, ongoing single-digit inflation is the driving force behind the Bank of Ghana's decision to keep the benchmark policy rate unchanged until the final MPC meeting in November 2026.

The report states, "Consumer price growth has remained at multi-decade lows this year, averaging just 4.0% year-on-year, well below the 2010-2025 average of 15.7% and the BoG’s 6.0-10.0% target range. Price pressures have been contained by the lagged effects of earlier monetary tightening, favourable base effects and a stronger cedi from a year-on-year perspective."

Despite this, inflation has increased from 3.2% in March 2026 to 5.0% in August 2026, and Fitch Solutions expects it to continue rising, reaching 6.8% by year-end. The company attributes this primarily to rising energy costs due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict and the cedi weakening on a year-on-year basis. Nonetheless, Fitch Solutions believes inflation will remain relatively low by Ghanaian standards and below the Bank of Ghana's target midpoint through the fourth quarter of 2026, limiting the need for further monetary tightening.

Consequently, with inflation on the rise, the likelihood of another rate cut before November 2026 is deemed unlikely, making the most probable outcome a hold.