Why Canada is preparing for a (long shot) US invasion

Canada is preparing for an unlikely US invasion, despite military experts and government officials stating the risk is minimal. Prime Minister Mark Carney admitted to preparing for such a scenario, noting the risk was low, but it was his responsibility to consider all possibilities as the US-Canada relationship is redefined under the Trump presidency.

Trump's tariffs and desire to make Canada the 51st state have led Canada to war game an attack by the Americans. While US President Trump said it was highly unlikely the US would ever use force against Canada, military experts point to multiple ways the two countries work together on defense. A war between Canada and the US would be complicated, but Lt-Gen Christopher Coates, a former military officer, believes an attack would likely be more discreet, such as through cyberwarfare.

The two countries have collaborated on military defense, including joint Arctic defense missions and intelligence sharing. Canada and the US became allies after the American Revolution, resisting US expansionism in the 18th and 19th centuries. A war with the US would be difficult to imagine, but Canadians are preparing for the worst.

According to Canada's military model, an attack would overwhelm strategic positions within a week, forcing Canadian forces to resort to guerrilla warfare. Allies like France and Britain may provide support.