The Economist: Why Tinubu May Win 2027 Election Despite Growing Public Discontent
· President is universally disliked, cost of living crisis will decide poll, says ADC · NDC: No pathway to Tinubu’s re-election without manipulation · Presidency defends Tinubu’s reforms, tackles opposition Deji Elumoye, Chuks Okocha,
The Economist magazine predicts that President Bola Tinubu might still secure re-election in the 2027 Nigerian presidential election, despite widespread public discontent over issues such as insecurity, economic hardship, and government performance. However, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) disagree with this assessment, arguing that the cost-of-living crisis will be the deciding factor in the election, and that there is no pathway for Tinubu to retain power through manipulation.
The Economist attributes Tinubu's chances to Nigeria's complex electoral dynamics, including political cynicism, a divided opposition, religious considerations, the incumbency advantage, and historically low voter turnout. Despite the President's apparent indifference to his re-election prospects, the article highlights the worsening security crisis and economic pressures in the country.
While Tinubu's economic reforms have been praised by investors, they have not yet improved the living conditions for most Nigerians, numbering approximately 240 million.
The magazine also notes that Tinubu's potential challengers from northern Nigeria, particularly those facing severe insecurity and economic deprivation, might gain more popularity in those regions. However, the President's apparent confidence does not reflect widespread satisfaction with his administration, according to The Economist.
The publication uses Borno State as an example of the challenges facing the Tinubu administration, describing the state as being in the grip of a 20-year insurgency. The violence has damaged the local economy, leaving young people without jobs and traders without customers.
The President's re-election campaign is centered on economic reforms, including the removal of the fuel subsidy, which has brought some stability to Nigeria. Annual inflation remains around 15%, while food inflation is closer to 20%. Despite the economic and security situation affecting Tinubu's standing in northern Nigeria, where the APC has traditionally performed strongly, the Economist argues that dissatisfaction with the President might not be enough to remove him from office.
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