Brazil votes with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied and a small group of undecided voters holding the key

Brazil holds its presidential election on Sunday, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro tied in the first round. A small group of undecided voters and abstainers could determine the outcome in the runoff on October 25. Recent polls show Lula with 39% and Bolsonaro with 34%, while 5% of voters have not decided and 10% intend to vote blank, spoil their ballot, or abstain. Other candidates combined hold around 12% of the vote.

Political scientist Leonardo Paz of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation suggests that the vote is largely decided among 80% of the population, with the remaining 15-20% being the key factor. Both candidates have focused their final events on the outskirts of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais, the states with the largest voter populations. Lula urged voters not to dress in red colors, while Bolsonaro suggested that change can be achieved without his support.

A debate between both candidates was planned but canceled after both stayed away and a series of court rulings. A cleaner in Rio de Janeiro stated that she is torn between Bolsonaro's security pledges and her concern about cuts to social programs. Turnout will be crucial, as abstention in the first round of the 2022 election reached about 21%, the highest since 1998, and could be higher this year, hurting Lula's support, as it is primarily among lower-income groups who abstain the most.

In addition to the presidential election, Brazilians will vote for all 27 state governors, the entire Chamber of Deputies, and two-thirds of the Senate.