Nepal disaster highlights risks for NZ mountains

A massive rock and ice avalanche in the Himalaya that turned into a devastating debris flood in Nepal on August 26 was the result of multiple factors, according to an international research study. Dr. Robinson, a senior lecturer at UC School of Earth and Environment, was part of the team that investigated the disaster. The study, published on September 17, found that a combination of a 2015 earthquake, rising temperatures, loss of glacial ice and permafrost, and changing snow and rainfall all contributed to the event.

Near the collapse site, temperatures are now 1.5°C warmer in July and August, and 1.9°C warmer annually, due to human influence on the climate. The earthquake in 2015 damaged the rock, making large collapses more likely even years later. Dr. Robinson noted that similar conditions are present in New Zealand's Southern Alps, where there is a 75% chance of a major Alpine Fault earthquake in the next 50 years.

While the potential size of such events is smaller than the one in Nepal, the increasing tourism in mountain areas could lead to more occurrences in the future. Dr. Robinson emphasized that no amount of adaptation can prevent or minimize the losses, and both adaptation and emissions reductions are necessary to address the issue.