Is Iran's proxy strategy back?
The wars Israel, and later the US, have fought since October 7, 2023 have degraded Iran ’s so-called Axis of Resistance and discredited the forward-defence strategy meant to keep fighting away from Iranian territory. But Tehran ’s network of armed allies is not irrelevant. Its role in the regime’s strategic calculus has simply been demoted, differentiated and repurposed. Before October 7,…
The recent wars between Israel and Hamas have significantly weakened Iran's "Axis of Resistance" and undermined the forward-defence strategy intended to keep conflict away from Iranian territory. However, Iran's network of allied groups remains influential in its strategic calculations. While Hezbollah was once the crown jewel of Iran's regional strategy, its role has been demoted and repurposed since October 7th, 2023.
The logic of deterrence, which relied on the cost of attacking Iran outweighing the threat, was changed as Israel deemed the threats to be existential. This shift resulted in Israel directly engaging Iran's territory, marking a significant change in the dynamic. Iran's armed allies continue to provide Tehran with considerable influence, despite the weakened forward defence.
The Houthis have gained substantial leverage around the Bab Al Mandeb strait and against Saudi Arabia, while the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq have helped close the Red Sea energy alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, increasing Tehran's leverage over global energy markets. Hezbollah continues to hinder Israeli forces and resources in Lebanon, and Hamas, by merely surviving, complicates Israel's ability to achieve a definitive victory in Gaza.
The strategic centre of gravity has shifted towards the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea, reordering Iran's network of allies. The "Six Hs" now guide Iran's strategy in descending order of strategic priority: homeland deterrence, Hormuz, the Houthis, Hashd Forces, Hezbollah, and Hamas. This new hierarchy reflects the changing nature of Iran's strategic approach, from insulation to creating costs for adversaries beyond Iran's borders.
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