Trump unlikely to win Nobel Peace Prize but could influence winner

US President Donald Trump is unlikely to secure the Nobel Peace Prize this year, as he is engaged in conflict with Iran. However, his influence on the prestigious awarding body is expected to be significant, according to experts. Last year's recipient, Venezuela's Maria Corina Machado, donated the Nobel medal to Trump, aiming to secure his support for her democratic Venezuela initiatives.

The five-member Nobel committee will likely consider Trump's pressure when selecting the 2022 laureate, says Haakon Gjerloew, the acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo. Possible alternatives include Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, and Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories. The Pope's advocacy for dialogue and peaceful conflict resolution, as well as his humanitarian work, could make a strong case for the award.

Meanwhile, Italy's Albanese has faced criticism from the US and Israel over her outspoken stance against Israel's actions in Gaza and the West Bank. The committee is also under pressure to address Trump's challenges to the international order, according to Oeivind Stenersen, a historian who has written about the Nobel Peace Prize. The prize may need to support liberal democracy, international law, and human rights in this context.

Despite Trump reportedly receiving nominations from leaders of Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan, his chances of receiving the prestigious award seem slim. Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa, a Filipino and American journalist, has expressed concern that "bullies don't run the world" in response to Trump's pressure on the Norwegian Nobel Committee.