Trump unlikely to win Nobel Peace Prize but could influence winner

US President Donald Trump, currently engaged in conflict with Iran, is unlikely to receive this year's Nobel Peace Prize. However, his influence over the awarding committee is expected to be significant, according to experts. The Nobel committee may prioritize selecting a laureate who can withstand pressure from Trump, experts suggest.

Last year's award to Venezuela's Maria Corina Machado, who later gave her Nobel medal to Trump, may have influenced the committee's considerations this year. The committee may also consider individuals who demonstrate resilience against Trump's influence, such as Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court, or Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

An award to Pope Leo, known for his advocacy for dialogue and peaceful conflict resolution, could be justified. Alternatively, the committee might opt for a safer, less controversial choice to avoid antagonizing Trump, such as Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms or Save the Children. However, the committee faces pressure to address Trump's challenges to international order, potentially leading to an award recognizing the International Criminal Court or the International Court of Justice. Trump's reported nominations from Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan have a low probability of success.