US oil bosses say Iran war is disrupting long-term planning

Shale executives are expressing growing frustration over the disruptive effects of the Iran war on oil markets and their ability to plan for the future. Anonymous comments from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey reveal increasing concerns about market volatility. A respondent remarked, "We are getting to the point in this global conflict and its effect on commodity markets that it is tough to predict what the remainder of 2026 and also 2027 will potentially look like."

The Dallas Fed survey, which covered September 16 to 24, showed respondents anticipating WTI crude to settle at an average of $88 a barrel by year-end, ranging from $70 to $126 a barrel. WTI crude prices surged $1.27 to $90.65 a barrel on Wednesday due to stalled talks to end the Iran conflict. Since the conflict began on February 28, WTI crude has risen about 35 percent.

Respondents also forecast a Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.29 per million British thermal units by year-end. One executive noted, "There is still too much chaos but it is leading to a bullish oil price sentiment because of all of the ramifications of what has taken place in the Middle East."

Another respondent predicted WTI to end the year between $75 and $100 a barrel, citing the unprecedented pricing volatility caused by the Iran situation. "Pricing volatility is near an all-time high given the backdrop of Iran. Swings of $5, $10 and $20 up or down are common. It is very challenging to select a planning price or budgeting price," they added.

The survey also highlighted growing frustrations with the US administration under President Donald Trump. "My oil price crystal ball broke when the administration first hit Iran," one respondent said. "Decisions by the executive branch of our Federal Government seem to be driven primarily by concerns over midterm election results." The survey garnered responses from 125 energy companies, including 83 exploration and production firms and 42 oilfield service companies.