US oil bosses say Iran war is disrupting long-term planning

US shale executives are expressing growing frustration over the disruptive effects of the Iran war on oil markets, making it difficult for them to plan for the future. According to a quarterly survey published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, anonymous comments from oil executives revealed increasing concerns about the impact of the war on commodity markets and the resulting market volatility.

One respondent stated that it is becoming increasingly challenging to predict the outlook for the remainder of 2026 and 2027 due to the ongoing conflict and its effects on oil markets. The survey, which was conducted from September 16 to 24, showed that respondents expected the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to settle at an average of $88 a barrel by the end of the year, with responses ranging from $70 to $126 a barrel.

WTI crude prices have risen by approximately 35% since the conflict began on February 28, and the survey also showed anticipated Henry Hub natural gas prices of $3.29 per million British thermal units by the end of 2026. Respondents expressed frustration with the current state of affairs, with one stating that the market volatility caused by the Iran situation has reached all-time highs, with swings of $5, $10, and $20 up or down being common.

Another executive questioned whether the market volatility experienced during the 2012-2020 period will be repeated in 2026, drawing a comparison to the economic turmoil of that time. The survey also revealed growing frustrations with the US administration, with one respondent mentioning that their oil price predictions were disrupted when the administration first took action against Iran.

The survey received responses from 125 energy companies, including 83 exploration and production firms and 42 oilfield service companies.