Trump-Lula: A relationship of dramatic ups and downs

In Brazil's contentious election, US President Donald Trump appears to be backing right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro, who has pledged to align with a surge of conservative Latin American leaders who have grown closer to Washington. Despite turbulent trade relations, Trump has shown a surprising affinity for incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80, stating that they share "excellent chemistry."

A Bolsonaro victory would further solidify Trump's growing network of allies in the region, either through elections or, as seen with Venezuela, through force. Brazil is set to join Trump's Shield of the Americas security initiative if Bolsonaro prevails.

Although Trump and Lula are political adversaries, their approach to international relations is characterized by a personal touch. Their brief UN meeting last year led to rekindled trade talks, with Trump expressing his admiration for Lula's "excellent chemistry" and inviting him to the White House in May.

During Brazil's recent electoral campaign, Lula has increasingly positioned himself as a defender of Brazilian sovereignty, warning against external forces undermining democratic processes. Tensions escalated when Brazil declined to endorse Trump's choice for the US ambassador, Daniel Perez, prompting the US to revoke the visa of Brazil's ambassador to Washington as retaliation.

The diplomatic dispute seems unlikely to be resolved before Brazil's October elections, as the US aims to avoid any interference in the electoral process. Despite the ongoing tensions, Lula has resumed trade negotiations with a phone call to Trump, a move that may not sway Brazilian voters who prioritize other concerns over Lula's potential moderating influence in this US-Brazil standoff.