Tax Revenue Forecast Raised by 63.2 Trillion Won on Semiconductor Boom

Seoul, South Korea - The Ministry of Finance and Economy has significantly revised upward its forecast for this year's tax revenue, attributing the increase primarily to a booming semiconductor industry. On September 30, the Tax Revenue Estimation Committee updated its estimates, predicting national tax revenue of 478.6 trillion won ($353.29 billion), a 63.2 trillion won rise from the previous year's actual figure of 415.4 trillion won. This marks the fifth-largest deviation from the government's forecast since 1950.

The semiconductor sector's robust performance, with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix reporting first-half operating profits of 146.7 trillion won and 98.1 trillion won respectively, drove much of the revenue surge. Corporate tax revenue is now forecast at 136.4 trillion won, 35 trillion won more than initially projected. Income tax revenue is also projected to be higher than expected, at 152.4 trillion won, up 15.6 trillion won from the supplementary budget estimate.

Contributing factors to the revenue increase include strong performance bonuses in the semiconductor and financial sectors, rising wages, and heightened housing transactions. The stock market's strength, with daily trading value exceeding 100 trillion won at its peak, along with a recovering consumption trend, have also positively impacted tax revenue.

The government has responded to the significant forecast deviation by implementing institutional reforms. It has elevated the Tax Revenue Estimation Committee to a formal deliberative body and introduced an AI forecasting model for corporate tax estimates. Additionally, annual reestimation of tax revenue for the current fiscal year has been made a regular process every September under amendments to the National Finance Act.