Is Iran Losing Its Grip on Strait of Hormuz Traffic?

Iran has called for the use of the northern route through its territorial waters for Strait of Hormuz transits. Saudi, Iraqi, and Kuwaiti crude, as well as UAE volumes needing to bypass pipelines, are now moving via the southern corridor, still under USCENTCOM air defense and naval support. Rising crude volumes are challenging Iran's ability to control traffic, as confirmed by Windward MIOC's assessment.

According to AIS data, only 55 visible transits occurred between September 16 and 23, significantly lower than the pre-war average of roughly 910 per week. This discrepancy is partly due to tankers turning off their AIS for safety or security reasons. The Tanker Shuttle system is in place, allowing tankers to discharge cargo in the Gulf of Oman and return via ship-to-ship transfer rather than sailing through the Strait.

This strategy reduces the number of vessels navigating the higher-risk Strait. Between September 20 and 22, 26.72 million barrels of crude exited the Strait, with about two-thirds being transferred via ship-to-ship transfers. Saudi Arabia's crude exports have significantly decreased, with only a handful of tankers loading crude at Ras Tanura and Juaymah in September 2021.

However, Gulf loadings remain well below pre-war levels. Iran can still strike individual vessels, but MIOC believes such attacks are more likely to cause short-lived disruptions rather than a sustained reduction in exports. The recovery in crude flows persists, albeit vulnerable to further escalation.