Why Kenyan farmers are steadily trading wheat for barley ?

Kenyan farmers are increasingly shifting from wheat to barley production, driven by strong demand from beer producers in neighboring Uganda and Tanzania, which could lead to a potential wheat shortage in Nairobi, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) explains that Kenyan wheat farmers are opting for barley due to high production costs, strict regulations, and increased competition from wheat imports.

This shift is feasible since both crops require similar soil and climate conditions in the Narok-Nakuru-Meru belt. Barley is mainly used in brewing and animal feed, while wheat is consumed domestically. USDA emphasizes that although Kenyan private sectors provide guaranteed pre-planting prices to protect farmers from market volatility, the surge in regional barley demand has boosted prices, hastening the transition.

In Kenya, barley growers who meet quality standards receive a guaranteed minimum price of $0.46 (Ksh60) per kilogramme, slightly higher than the domestic wheat price of $0.43 (Ksh55.47) per kilogramme. However, lower-grade barley for animal feed sells for a much lower price range of $0.27 to $0.31 (Ksh35 to Ksh40) per kilogramme.

The USDA notes that the export market for barley has significant potential, with prices reaching $0.62 (Ksh80) per kilogramme in 2025. This has resulted in higher barley exports, leaving only around a quarter of the local production for local malting and brewing purposes. Consequently, Kenya has become the primary East African supplier of raw barley, exporting 39,997 metric tonnes of barley in 2025, with the majority going to Uganda and Tanzania.

Uganda is the top export market, absorbing 93 percent of the barley, while Tanzania accounts for 2.9 percent (1,150 metric tonnes) to cover its domestic supply deficit. Smaller quantities are exported to Burundi and the UK. Despite the potential benefits of barley production, farmers face challenges such as frequent droughts and fluctuating input prices.

Additionally, short-term land leases limit long-term investments in sustainable soil health. Barley production in Kenya is primarily concentrated in high-altitude regions with cool climates, suitable volcanic soil, and reliable rainfall. Narok County dominates national production at 60 percent, while Meru County contributes 15 to 20 percent, and Nakuru County accounts for 10 to 15 percent.

Emerging production hubs include Uasin Gishu (5 to 10 percent) and Laikipia County (2 to 5 percent). Wheat farmers in these regions are switching to barley to take advantage of more stable contracts and marketing arrangements, as both crops have similar soil and climate requirements. In recent years, barley production has rebounded strongly after a severe weather-induced decline in 2023, with output increasing by 64.6 percent in 2024 and another 19.8 percent in 2025, reaching a record high of 64,800 metric tonnes.

This growth was fueled by favorable weather conditions, particularly in the Mau Narok region, and a 7.7 percent increase in cultivated land from 13,929 hectares to 15,000 hectares.