Who is really undermining global food security: Russia or Ukraine?

U.S. President Donald Trump has given the green light to a plan by special envoy John Coale to ease sanctions on Russia in return for the release of political prisoners, according to The Atlantic. Coale managed to secure the release of approximately 500 political prisoners in Belarus by trading them for sanctions relief. The two countries are now discussing a major deal involving the purchase of Belarusian potash, a substance Washington last announced it wants to acquire from Minsk.

Coale's plan to engage with Russia remains in its preliminary stages and aims to break the logjam in talks between Moscow and the United States. The strategy would allow Vladimir Putin to demonstrate goodwill and diplomatic progress with Washington while continuing Russia's attacks on Ukraine. In exchange for the release of prisoners, the U.S. could offer the Kremlin sanctions relief and resume trade relations.

Coale believes such arrangements would foster peace: "Economic ties usually result in normality." However, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed reservations and vowed to impede any move to lift sanctions on Russia before the war concludes. Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya also doubts that lifting sanctions for prisoners would deter Russia's authorities from holding more hostages, as they can perpetually imprison additional individuals while the West loses its leverage due to sanctions and deals.

Dmitry Muratov, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and former editor-in-chief of Novaya Gazeta, suggested Coale try his approach with the Kremlin. Coale has a list of Americans detained in Russian prisons that Washington can raise in future negotiations, and he and Muratov have compiled a separate list of Russian political prisoners, journalists, and others convicted for opposing the war. The specific names and potential U.S. concessions have not been disclosed.