Scientists Warn Florida Could Face Its Biggest Measles Outbreak in Decades
The study forecasted that the state's plan could lead to pediatric deaths numbering in the hundreds within five years.
A new study warns that Florida's plans to eliminate vaccine mandates for children could lead to the largest measles outbreak in the United States in more than 50 years. Researchers at the University of Maryland used a mathematical model to analyze the potential impact of dropping the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine from school immunization requirements.
The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, projected that such a move could trigger a significant measles epidemic, with hundreds of pediatric deaths within five years. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had previously vowed to end all vaccine mandates, and last month, Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo signed a proposal to remove requirements for several vaccines, including MMR.
Despite measles being considered eradicated in 2000, the U.S. has seen a surge in cases this year, with over 2,000 reported. Florida has already experienced more than 100 measles cases. The researchers built their model using data from a 2025 measles outbreak in Gaines County, Texas, and incorporated Florida-specific vaccination coverage and demographic information.
They found that even small reductions in child vaccination rates could lead to disproportionately large increases in outbreak size. Experts, including Dr. Jon Andrus and Dr. Paul Offit, have warned that removing the MMR vaccine mandate would be disastrous for public health and could reignite measles transmission across the country.
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