Netflix stock analysis: is today’s Deutsche Bank upgrade justified?

Netflix (NFLX) stock is currently trading at $70.24, marking a 44% decline from its June 2025 peak, which has led Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft to upgrade the stock to Buy with a $95 price target, representing a 37% upside potential. The analyst's reasoning behind this upgrade centers around the market undervaluing Netflix's international operations while concentrating on U.S. viewer engagement metrics.

One key factor in Deutsche Bank's bullish case is Netflix's international growth. Roughly 60% of the company's content is now produced outside the U.S., and international time-spent has increased consecutively for the past four six-month periods. This shift suggests that Netflix's international business is becoming more robust and competitive, particularly in local-language production.

Deutsche Bank's valuation model also supports the $95 target, projecting a multiple expansion to the low-to-mid 20x range on top of a 23% EPS growth in 2027. With revenue having grown from $29.7 billion in FY2021 to $45.2 billion in FY2025, and EBITDA nearly doubling from $6.4 billion to $13.7 billion during the same period, Netflix's capital-light business model appears to be functioning well.

Furthermore, Netflix's tech-first approach has positioned the company to leverage AI more effectively in personalization, content production, and advertising than legacy competitors. This gives Netflix an edge in the streaming industry, making it an attractive investment for the long-term.

While the overall market sentiment towards Netflix is bearish, with several analysts maintaining a Hold or Underweight rating, Deutsche Bank's upgrade presents a compelling case. The key risk identified by analysts is disappointing H2 2026 earnings related to content spend or subscriber metrics, which could stall multiple expansion and make the bear case more credible.