Milei denies a recession and says indicators are "throwing out anything"

Argentine President Javier Milei dismissed the idea that his country is currently in a recession, disputing data showing a rise in poverty and a decline in economic activity. In a recent interview, Milei stated, "The indicators are throwing out anything," clarifying that the nation is experiencing a slowdown in the pace of expansion rather than a recession.

He explained that a recession is defined technically as two consecutive quarters of contraction, which currently does not apply. Milei criticized the use of seasonally adjusted series, which he believes "measure badly" amidst major structural changes in the economy as state-provided sectors shrink while more productive ones expand.

Despite this, he claimed that Argentina is seeing record levels of private consumption, exports, and output, creating over 500,000 jobs under his administration, and expects four years of continuous growth. The figures leading to these claims were recently published by the National Institute of Statistics and Census. However, economic activity plummeted 2.9% in July compared to June, marking the largest monthly decline in six years, and unemployment reached 7.9%, the highest under the current administration.

Milei characterized the poverty figure as "an old snapshot" since it covers the initial half-year and attributed rising unemployment to the reallocation of resources and increased job-seeking. Despite this, international markets reacted negatively, with country risk for Argentina rising to 640 points, its highest level of the year.

Milei linked these economic difficulties to opposition moves in Congress and security concerns, alleging "40 attempts to bring down the fiscal balance" and "seven coup attempts." However, these claims lack official support; according to ministry data, only fewer than 1,700 people were denied entry to the country, not primarily for terrorism-related reasons.