Dual chokepoint: Oil surges as Trump rejects Iran deal, Murban jumps 3%

On Tuesday, September 29, 2026, oil prices surged as President Donald Trump declined an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping supply risks high. Brent crude rose 1.4% to near $106.80, while U.S. WTI increased 1% to around $93.50 in early Asian trade. The Murban crude, from Abu Dhabi, led the gains, jumping 3.4% to $116.90, reflecting tighter Gulf supplies and higher freight costs due to shipping disruptions and a Saudi pipeline outage.

Natural gas prices also ticked up 0.9% to $3.13 as traders balanced Middle East tensions with seasonal demand. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed after President Trump rejected Iran's plan to reopen it within seven days. Shipments are running 75-90% below normal due to the closure, forcing most tankers to idle, take longer routes, or use limited authorized corridors.

Iran's Gulf Strait Authority has warned ships against unauthorized routes, threatening consequences. The Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait are also under pressure from Houthi attacks, which have reduced weekly transits to about 25 vessels. Analysts warn that sustained Houthi pressure could force more carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, causing higher freight and insurance costs.

The disruptions in the Gulf have tightened global oil supplies, driven benchmark prices above $100 a barrel, and increased the risk of inflationary pressure on fuel and goods dependent on Middle East shipping lanes. Until a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or ensure safe passage through Bab al-Mandab is reached, ships are likely to avoid risky corridors, leading to sustained higher costs and delays for energy and cargo flows between Asia, Europe, and the Americas.