China leads Canada’s oil pivot to Asia as Mid-East war reshapes crude trade

Canada is accelerating its shift of heavy crude to Asian markets, amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran that has caused a bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz. The government-run Trans Mountain pipeline has seen a $25 billion expansion in 2024, now supplying major Asian markets like China, India, and Japan. The pipeline, owned by the Canadian government, carries Alberta oil to British Columbia's coast, providing direct access to Asian buyers instead of relying mainly on US buyers.

Mark Maki, CEO of the pipeline operator, says Asia is projected to consume about 70% of Canadian crude exported via the Trans Mountain pipeline. The 890,000-barrel-per-day Trans Mountain system, which commenced full capacity operations in June 2024, transports crude from Alberta to the Pacific coast. The $25 billion expansion reached full capacity in June, and further capacity additions are planned, potentially increasing oil shipments to the West Coast to 1.2 million barrels per day by late 2028.