Arctic infrastructure was built on frozen ground—drones and digital twins can help spot the permafrost thaw coming
From the air, Wainwright, Alaska, looks like a perfectly stable band of homes and roads between the Chukchi Sea and a vast, flat tundra. But just below the surface, the frozen ground on which this town was built contains large bodies of ice. Along the eroding coastal bluffs, that hidden ice is becoming exposed and melting away.
Alaska's Arctic infrastructure was constructed on permafrost, or frozen ground, which contains large bodies of ice. As temperatures rise, this hidden ice thaws, causing roads, buildings, and pipelines to sink, tilt, crack, and leak. The 2025 study estimated that permafrost thaw could cause $37 billion to $51 billion in damage to buildings and roads alone.
Instead of drilling boreholes, researchers are using drones and digital twin technology to detect permafrost thaw. VLF-EM, or very low frequency electromagnetic surveying, uses electromagnetic signals to identify areas where the ground has thawed. Digital twins replicate changing real-world environments and aging infrastructure, helping to forecast the impact of permafrost thaw on infrastructure.
By combining drones, sensors, and computer models, engineers aim to provide communities with the tools they need to monitor, reinforce, repair, or adapt to the changing landscape.
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