What is at stake in Brazil’s elections?

Brazil votes on Sunday, with the nation split between leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro. The stakes include Brazil's role in a region-wide shift toward the right, as seen in Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Colombia, and Peru. A Lula victory would maintain Brazil's status as a major leftist bastion, while a Flavio Bolsonaro win would see the country join the shifting tide.

Lula, known for pragmatic leadership, still maintains ties with right-wing leaders in Chile, Bolivia, and Paraguay. Relations with the US have been strained under Lula, who faced tariffs and sanctions from the Trump administration. If Lula wins, the US may continue using threats and tariffs to distance itself from China. Bolsonaro's presidency from 2019 to 2022 tested Brazil's democracy, with his administration clashing with institutions, attacking the Supreme Court, and questioning electronic voting systems.

Bolsonaro was convicted in 2025 for attempting a coup and is currently serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest. The next election will also renew the Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate, which has been under conservative control. This is crucial, as the incoming president will appoint up to four of the Supreme Court's eleven justices, with Senate confirmation required.

Lula has defended Brazil's electoral system and vowed not to allow "enemies of democracy" to undermine public opinion. However, the election has not focused heavily on environmental issues like deforestation and climate change, despite Brazil's critical role in combating global warming. Lula aims to end deforestation by 2030, while Bolsonaro has pledged to stop deforestation by 2029, though his support for agribusiness raises doubts about his commitment.