US and SA at an impasse

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa's negotiations with the United States have reached an impasse. President Ramaphosa wagered South Africa's well-being on President Donald Trump's fleeting attention span, but unfortunately, he lost the bet. Drawing from the Marxist-Leninist concept of the "balance of forces," the African National Congress (ANC) views concessions as temporary tactical adjustments rather than negotiated changes in policy.

US Ambassador Brent Bozell discussed the deteriorating relations between the two countries, revealing that South Africa had indeed "acceded to all the requests," but not in the language or time frame Washington demanded. There were two negotiating stages, with the first involving 13 domestic "asks" that included alleged discrimination, incitement, and violence against racial minorities, as well as broad-based black economic empowerment (B-BBEE) requirements. The US regarded these demands as impediments to US investment.

Geopolitical tensions arose from the remaining eight issues, which, though legitimate concerns, were seen as relatively uncontroversial threshold issues to be cleared before more difficult bargaining began. However, talks on the meatier geopolitical issues stalled, with the US believing two issues were resolved, and four others moving towards resolution.

The three sticking points were Ramaphosa's condemnation of the "Kill the Boer, Kill the Farmer" chant, his handling of rural crime, and extending B-BBEE to mining and telecommunications.

The US expressed growing impatience, setting a 15-day deadline for South Africa to respond. After waiting, Ramaphosa's letter arrived, but it contained no answers to the US demands. Washington concluded that Pretoria was unwilling to make the necessary decisions, leading to the imposition of targeted visa restrictions. Bozell believes the negotiations have reached a point where everything is off the table, and it is now up to South Africa to return with new proposals.