Refugees in South Africa fear new attacks as September 30 deadline looms

A new report warns that South Africa could see around 1,200 extra deaths from extreme heat between September 2026 and February 2027, as a record-breaking El Niño event intensifies. This prediction, which could vary by up to 90 deaths, is part of a broader warning that this year's El Niño may be the strongest ever recorded. Globally, the Climate Impact Lab estimates that 451,000 lives could be lost to extreme heat during the first nine months of the El Niño, from June 2026 to February 2027.

The phenomenon is expected to exacerbate drought, wildfires, and flooding, primarily affecting the Global South. In Africa's Sahel region, the report predicts 66,800 additional heat-related deaths in the coming six months, with Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad accounting for a significant proportion of these fatalities. South Africa's projected figure places it among the countries at risk during the September-to-February period.

Emergency response measures, such as early-warning systems, cooling centers, and protections for outdoor workers, could help prevent tens of thousands of deaths. The Climate Impact Lab's Adaptation Inventory, based on peer-reviewed research, identifies these measures as effective in saving lives. The researchers also describe this year's El Niño as a preview of future climate conditions, with temperatures comparable to what climate change is expected to bring about 20 years from now.

The World Health Organization warns that the weather pattern could create ideal conditions for diseases like cholera and mosquito-borne illnesses like malaria, chikungunya, and dengue fever. WHO's Teresa Zakaria stressed that the most severe impacts would be felt when climate shocks intersect with weak health systems, food insecurity, displacement, and humanitarian crises.