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Pakistan's consumer price inflation is predicted to decrease to roughly 10% in September, as opposed to 11.15% in the previous month, according to brokerage firms. However, elevated expenses for fuel and electricity are anticipated to maintain price pressures and complicate the central bank's outlook on policy. The projected range for September inflation is between 9.9% and 10.5% compared to 11.15% in August and 5.61% in September 2025.

In August 2026, the country's headline inflation was 11.1% year-on-year, up from 9.2% in July, as reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Topline Securities anticipates inflation to be 10.25-10.3% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month, with fuel prices rising 6.5% during the month. Electricity prices increased by 9.58% on a month-over-month basis, while Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices rose by 2.61%.

Ismail Iqbal Securities expects September inflation to be 10.5% year-on-year and 1.4% month-on-month, with energy accounting for a larger share of the increase. Food pressures are expected to lessen, contributing around 25 basis points. The rise in electricity charges is mainly due to a higher Charges Adjustment (FCA) of Rs2.0581/kWh compared to Rs0.7503/kWh in August 2026, along with a positive Quarterly Tariff Adjustment (QTA) of Rs0.5194/kWh.

Food contributes around 55 basis points in Ismail Iqbal Securities' forecast. The mix of factors is more significant than the headline figure, with food accounting for almost half of August's inflation. Higher fuel and power prices are expected to persist, eventually driving up transport fares, freight costs, and core inflation.

Abbasi and Company forecasts September national CPI inflation at 10.2% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month, attributing elevated food inflation to higher prices of wheat flour, meat, rice, fresh milk, cooking oil, and vegetable ghee. Abbasi and Company also cites higher motor fuel, transport, and housing costs as factors contributing to inflation.

Growth Securities projects the lowest inflation forecast among the four brokerages, predicting September inflation at 9.9% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month, attributing the impact of higher fuel prices to be slightly mitigated by lower food prices. The central bank's monetary policy stance is under scrutiny due to the inflation outlook.

The State Bank of Pakistan kept its policy rate unchanged at 11.5% this month, with Ismail Iqbal Securities expecting another hold at the upcoming meeting in October and expecting no change before the end of CY26. Growth Securities anticipates an increase in the Monetary Policy Committee of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) policy rate by 50-100 bps in the upcoming meeting on October 26, 2026, if fuel prices remain elevated.