Consumer confidence dips in September amid inflation concerns

The preliminary official inflation rate for September in Brazil was recorded at 0.70 percent, marking the highest level since April when it reached 0.89 percent. This figure marked a reversal from August, when the rate was deflationary at -0.40 percent. The main driver behind the increase was the removal of the Itaipu bonus, a discount on electricity bills that consumers had received the previous month.

This data was released by Brazil's statistics bureau, IBGE, through the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) on September 25. The IPCA-15 stands at 4.47 percent for the 12-month period, up from 4.24 percent in August. The preliminary inflation rate for September 2025 was 0.48 percent, with an expected 3 percent year-over-year rate for 2026.

The IPCA-15 is calculated using the same methodology as the official inflation measure, but with a different price-collection period and geographic coverage. In September, the housing category had the most significant impact, with a 2.07 percent increase due to a 7.42 percent rise in residential electricity prices. This was the largest individual contributor to the index, accounting for 0.29 percentage points.

Other groups that contributed to the inflation rate included personal expenses (0.96 percent), transportation (0.60 percent), household goods (0.55 percent), communication (0.54 percent), clothing (0.41 percent), food and beverages (0.40 percent), health and personal care (0.13 percent), and education (0.03 percent).