European Gas Prices Rally on U.S.-Iran Stalemate

Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices surged 2% in early trading on Monday, following a deadlock between the United States and Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The front-month futures of the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TTF, a key European gas trading price, climbed 2.15% to $83.76 per 73.62 euros at 7:15 a.m. Amsterdam time, after a 9% drop last week.

This price increase was driven by fears that liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Hormuz Strait would remain disrupted as Europe heads into winter, with storage levels at record lows. On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump declined to endorse Iran’s offer to start talks on a peace agreement, which sent oil prices up by 2% in Asian markets.

Consequently, European gas prices mirror the tight global market conditions, with most of Qatar’s LNG supply still offline and no clear timeline for resuming normal LNG shipping through the Hormuz Strait. While some Qatari and UAE cargoes have managed to pass through the Strait in recent weeks, their volume remains insufficient to impact the global LNG supply.

As of September 27, EU gas storage sites were nearly 71% full, down from over 80% this time last year. Major economies, particularly Germany, are even more severely affected, with storage levels hovering around 57%, raising concerns about supply stability during the upcoming colder winter months. The European Commission and EU countries reaffirmed last week that the EU’s gas supply remains secure, according to a meeting of the Gas Coordination Group, which advises on security measures in case of emergencies.