Cuánto subirá el precio del diésel en Europa si Trump veta las exportaciones

Diesel prices in Europe could rise significantly if Donald Trump imposes a ban on diesel exports to other countries, according to analysts. American drivers currently pay $6.50 per gallon for diesel, equivalent to 1.5 euros per liter, which is slightly cheaper than the price in Spain, where diesel already costs around 2 euros per liter.

The potential price increase for Europeans could be exacerbated by Trump's possible ban, aimed at increasing domestic supply to alleviate the financial burden on his voters, as diesel prices have doubled since the beginning of the Iran war in February, with legislative elections taking place in November.

According to Goldman Sachs, for each week that the ban lasts, the price of gasoline in the United States would decrease by $0.25, or 4%. In Europe, diesel prices would increase by $3 per barrel, resulting in a 1.75% price hike. If the restriction lasts for 90 days, the wholesale cost of diesel in Europe could rise by around 20%, adding to the significant increase drivers have faced since the war.

Barclays believes that this new energy initiative in the Old Continent could weaken the euro, as it highlights Europe's dependence on energy. It may also put more pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates, as HSBC estimates that the direct and indirect effects of diesel restrictions would raise European inflation by 0.2%. Higher diesel prices and interest rates would translate into additional problems for the Spanish and other European stock markets.

While analysts are less certain about the positive effect of this measure on America, Société Générale warns that the main damage would be felt in markets that heavily rely on American diesel, such as Europe and Latin America. However, this could also lead to higher global prices, affecting the United States as well.