Chaotic dynamics in blooms of Ostreopsis cf. ovata modelled from environmental time series using ordinary differential equations systems
Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata can cause respiratory irritation in beach users, yet their environmental drivers and temporal dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we use a dynamical-systems approach to investigate how environmental conditions shape bloom dynamics from long-term time series of algal abundance and abiotic variables. Using the global modelling framework…
The toxic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata can trigger respiratory problems in beachgoers, yet the environmental factors and temporal patterns influencing its blooms are unclear. Researchers have employed a systems dynamics methodology to explore how environmental conditions influence the growth and decay of these algal blooms over extended periods.
By employing the global modelling framework GPoM, scientists were able to construct nonlinear ordinary differential equation systems that accurately mimic the key characteristics of bloom occurrences, including instances of chaotic behavior. Through topological and statistical assessments of these candidate models, two models were selected as the most effective in capturing the observed distributions and patterns of bloom dynamics.
These models provide insight into the specific environmental conditions that are most conducive to the formation and intensity of blooms, offering a means to interpret the progression of bloom events and potentially enable short-term forecasting of future blooms.
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