Why is Bitcoin still rising as long-term holders sell and big wallets add 113,950 BTC?

Bitcoin continues to rise in value as long-term holders sell some of their holdings and larger wallets add a significant 113,950 BTC to their total. However, the selling is not as intense as during previous market peaks. Long-term holders have sold some Bitcoin, but the profit-taking pattern in September 2026 is different from earlier major tops. Long-term holders now make much smaller gains (around 72%) compared to earlier peaks (around 350%). This smaller gain may reduce the incentive to sell.

Despite the selling pressure, Bitcoin remains supported at around $84,100. Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have added a combined 113,950 BTC since July 15, making up about 5.24 million BTC in total. This increase is not necessarily due to new market purchases, as funds, exchanges, or other entities could move coins between wallets. On-chain data also cannot account for all buying activities, as much of it occurs within exchange order books.

Long-term holders were the primary sellers during major Bitcoin tops in 2025, but they now account for a smaller share of realized profits (about 47%, down from 88% at the August peak). Bitcoin ETFs have provided additional buying demand, recording about $999 million in inflows on September 21.

Despite higher U.S. Treasury yields, Bitcoin has remained strong, even gaining 3.3% in the week leading up to September 26. The recent decline was less severe than previous bear markets, with Bitcoin reaching its shallowest bear-market bottom since 2017. Bitcoin is also on track for its first winning third quarter since 2012, but this historical pattern does not guarantee future performance.

Long-term holders' selling pressure is now only about one-fifth of the pace observed at the July 2025 peak, making it a crucial factor to watch.