Sakaja’s real test: How El Niño will expose whether Nairobi’s flood plan works

Nairobi anticipates another challenging rainy season in 2026, with above-average rainfall expected from October to December. The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority predicts prolonged wet spells and occasional storms, making the season a test of the government's flood prevention plans. Governor Johnson Sakaja faces the challenge of turning forecasts into effective protection, particularly in a city that has prioritized drainage and flood-control works in 227 flood hotspots across its 17 sub-counties.

A multi-agency program targets 19 flood-prone roads, while additional equipment is deployed to clear, desilt, widen, and deepen drainage channels. Critical drainage and road works have been given a 14-day deadline, and emergency operations centers have been established. However, the success of these measures will be judged by the response when the rain arrives.

Authorities are preparing for possible evacuations, but the challenge lies in determining where displaced residents should go, as Nairobi has expanded into flood-prone areas. The government must reduce the destructive path of water and provide a humane response for those at risk. Collaboration between county and national agencies, including KURA, KeNHA, KeRRA, Kenya Red Cross, and Nairobi Rivers Commission, is crucial.

The government's preparedness framework brings together various stakeholders, and accountability should follow the system. When El Niño arrives, Nairobians will evaluate whether drains worked, roads remained passable, warnings reached them in time, and whether the government was present before—and after—the water entered their homes.