Nikkei Faces Dividend Test After Five-Day Rally
Tokyo stocks head into September 28 with the Nikkei 225 sitting at 66,364 after a five-session winning streak, as investors weigh strong artificial intelligence and semiconductor momentum against dividend-related trading, a weak yen, high bond yields and lingering uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s next move. (News On Japan)
Tokyo's Nikkei 225 stock index reached 66,364 on September 28, following a five-day winning streak, as investors grappled with strong AI and semiconductor momentum amid concerns over dividend trading, a weak yen, high bond yields, and uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's next move. The final trading day of many September dividend rights is crucial for shaping the session, as shareholders must hold shares through the close on September 28 to receive interim dividends and shareholder benefits for companies with record dates on September 30.
Many sectors, including banks, insurers, trading firms, manufacturers, and high-dividend companies, experienced gains on September 25, with banks leading the broader market's rise of 850 points and TOPIX's climb of 53.29 points to 4,128.59. The upcoming September 28 dividend calendar could result in both last-minute buying and caution regarding the ex-dividend adjustment on September 29.
The Nikkei's technical outlook has improved, having reclaimed the 65,000 mark after Silver Week and surging above 66,000 on September 25, supported by chip shares, banks, and renewed confidence in global AI demand. The next critical test will be whether the Nikkei can sustain above 66,000 and push toward the upper 66,000 range. A strong close would indicate the rebound has shifted from a short-term futures-led recovery, while a weak session may suggest the rally was driven partly by dividend demand and short covering.
TOPIX's performance on September 24 and September 25 indicates a narrow AI-led rally, emphasizing the importance of a broader market participation for September 28. Investors will watch to see if the rally can be sustained by a combination of Tokyo Electron, Advantest, and SoftBank Group shares, but the market remains vulnerable to profit-taking.
The Nikkei's performance will be closely monitored alongside TOPIX, with the latter's strength reflecting healthier demand across financials, exporters, value shares, and domestic-demand names.
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