Konflik Asia Barat: Malaysia mungkin perlu hadapi 3 senario

Three potential scenarios may emerge following the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, according to Penaga Research and Consultancy. The first scenario involves reopening or widening the relevant waterways. Malaysia should consider this as the baseline scenario in planning, rather than perceiving it as something rare.

The second scenario entails continuing closures of both waterways, which is currently viewed as the norm by many. The third scenario involves the conflict spreading to cover both straits, with Penaga referencing the possibility of proxy actions backed by Iran in the region east of and tensions between major powers in the South China Sea.

Malaysia needs to build institutional capacity to manage crises independently of individual leaders' credibility, acknowledging Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's successful diplomacy. Malaysia also should provide stable protocols for handling risks associated with flagged ships and diplomatic matters before any crisis occurs. Overall, Malaysia has benefited more from its geographical position and semiconductor cycle right now than from proactive planning.