Experts rule out repeat of 2011 Thailand floods

Two top Thai experts are dismissing the chance of another major flood disaster similar to the 2011 catastrophe, despite ongoing heavy rain across parts of the country. Rangsit University’s Climate Change and Disaster Centre director, a Climate Change and Disaster Centre director, and a marine and environmental academic from Kasetsart University’s Faculty of Fisheries agree the odds are "virtually impossible" for a nationwide flood on the scale of 2011 this year.

Different climate patterns, notably the presence of El Niño rather than the La Niña that triggered 2011, sharply lower river flows in the north, and a smaller flooded area so far all contribute to this assessment. However, both caution that western Thailand remains at risk from runoff, and localized heavy rain could still trigger flash flooding in cities.

Accumulated rainfall over two days in recent days was over 300mm in several provinces, but nationwide rainfall is expected to drop sharply by September 27, returning to normal by September 28, outside western and upper Northwest areas. The real warning sign, the professor notes, is not the current flood levels outside embankments, which are much lower than in 2011.

He also criticized agencies for inadequate risk assessments and questioned drainage capacity. Three key differences with 2011 include the different climate patterns, no tropical storms compared to five in 2011, and far less flooded area this year, less than one-tenth of the 2011 figure. While the expert warns of localized "rain bomb" risks due to rising sea temperatures and atmospheric water vapor, he advises residents to track rain radar updates and check reliable weather sources for the latest information.