Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Shifts in the Midwest

President Donald Trump's net approval rating in the Midwest dropped five points within a month, according to Emerson College Polling's series. The national disapproval rating for Trump reached a second-term high during this period. The survey conducted in September revealed that voters in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio were weighing factors such as the Iran conflict, jobs, and tariff policy while choosing a midterm candidate.

These voters could influence whether Trump's regional dissatisfaction escalates into a broader issue for the GOP.

Trump's endorsement of Iowa Republican Ashley Hinson, who opposes increased beef imports and favors ending the Iran war, has contributed to the political tension. Hinson is running to fill the open Senate seat left by the retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst. Trump carried Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio in the 2024 election, while Michigan remained closely contested, making the regional decline in approval politically significant.

In August, Trump had 43% approval and 52% disapproval among Midwestern likely voters, resulting in a net rating of -9. By September, approval fell to 42% while disapproval increased to 56%, widening the deficit to -14 points. This change should be treated as a warning signal rather than definitive evidence of a lasting swing, as the Midwest is a smaller sample with a wider credibility interval compared to the national poll.

The Midwest shift has broader implications, as Republican candidates in pivotal U.S. Senate races face rural anger over fuel costs, the Iran war, and a beef-import policy opposed by some cattle producers. Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio could determine if Trump's regional dissatisfaction becomes a wider problem for the GOP.