Ukraine–U.S.–Russia: where is the negotiation track headed?

During the UN General Assembly week, multiple statements revealed the stark differences in the negotiation tracks: Washington aims for at least partial agreements, Kyiv is prepared for mutual steps, while Moscow adamantly refuses even a temporary halt to hostilities. Each side pursues distinct goals, with the U.S. focused on electoral success and Ukraine desiring fair terms to end the war. Moscow, however, aims to serve its interests while avoiding resource depletion and U.S. pressure escalation.

The White House's pursuit of successes has shifted focus from a unilateral cease-fire on energy infrastructure to a reciprocal arrangement. Ukraine's readiness for such a format is contingent on reciprocity, emphasizing that agreements should cover energy facilities on both sides. This issue demands urgent attention from the U.S. side to convey to Moscow.

Following negotiations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reported that both Russia and Ukraine expressed interest in a limited ceasefire covering energy infrastructure and grain supplies. This energy track could serve as a foundation for a concrete agreement, especially crucial for Ukraine in preparing for winter. Zelensky also discussed enhancing air defenses and obtaining Patriot interceptors during his talks with Trump.

Another potential track is ensuring safe navigation in the Black Sea. Ukraine is open to a maritime truce and has been working on proposals with the UAE, India, and Turkey. The issue extends beyond grain, encompassing energy, metallurgy, and other exports. Safe navigation could impact Ukrainian exports in general. Discussions with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also centered on Black Sea security and resuming the maritime export corridor, with Russia's readiness to cease strikes as a prerequisite.

Lastly, Zelensky highlighted the possibility of trilateral talks between Ukraine, the United States, and Russia. While few believe a meeting of the three leaders will occur, the U.S. has been exploring the technical feasibility of such discussions. Talks between Ukraine and the U.S. have taken place, with Ukrainian officials representing Zelensky and White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner representing the U.S. While a meeting of the leaders remains under discussion, the U.S. has invited Putin to the upcoming G20 summit in Miami, providing a formal opportunity for further contacts.