Talarico Suffers Double Poll Blow as Texas Undecided Voters Decide

James Talarico's five-point lead over Ken Paxton in Texas's crucial Senate race has narrowed to just one point according to two recent opinion polls, with the number of undecided voters in Texas also dropping. Democrats aim to seize control of the Senate in November's midterms, and a win in Texas—a traditionally Republican stronghold that hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1988—would significantly aid their chances.

Newly published Texas Public Opinion Research survey results, collected from September 19 to 22 among 1,007 likely Texas voters, showed Talarico with 49 percent support versus Paxton's 44 percent. The Texas Public Opinion Research poll, with a 3.6 percent margin of error, found Talarico's lead had decreased from six points in August to five points this month, as undecided voters fell from seven percent to three percent.

A separate Texas Southern University survey, conducted from September 15 to 19 among 1,800 likely voters, also had Talarico leading by one point, with 47 percent support versus Paxton's 46 percent. This poll's margin of error is 2.31 percent, and the lead reduction of one percentage point is within that margin. Talarico leads Paxton according to eight different pollsters, though several polls are within the margin of error, making the race too close to call.